This paper quantifies the environmental externalities associated with electricity consumption by data centers in the United States, focusing on damages from local air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG ...

This paper studies the impact of birthright citizenship on youth crime. We leverage a German reform which automatically granted birthright citizenship to eligible immigrant children born in Germany ...

Financial crises remain a recurrent feature of modern economies despite evidence that many are predictable and preventable. This chapter discusses how financial instability often reflects a political ...

The American Economic Association (AEA) has named four new Distinguished Fellows, three of whom, Marjorie McElroy, N. Gregory Mankiw and Robert A. Margo , have long-standing ties to the NBER.

Exploiting the staggered roll-out of China’s national air monitoring network, we document a pollutant substitution effect: PM.

Inflation expectations derived from financial markets exhibited unprecedented dynamics in 2025: the correlation between one-year inflation swaps and one-year-ahead one-year forward rates turned ...

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative ...

Second, early purchases generate an indirect spillover to firms: local retailers learn from "pioneer'' consumers which new varieties are most likely to succeed and adjust their product offerings ...

There is widespread opposition to affirmative action policies. We study whether personal disappointments shape preferences for such policies. Specifically, we test whether individuals' college ...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with a rational asset bubble and an occasionally binding borrowing constraint that reproduces these empirical regularities. The bubble raises collateral ...

Electricity reliability is a central challenge for the energy transition, as growing energy demand, renewable energy integration, and natural disasters increase the risk of large-scale black- outs.

Bank regulation supports financial stability, but might constrain economic activity. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of bank regulation using a high-frequency identification approach.